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What are the chances?

Probably like most people you've been faced with the tradesman who stands in front of you, takes a long deep breath and you know exactly what's coming, 'It's not a cheap job'…'We have to do this and that' and so it goes on and on, until you hear yourself saying it. This is what is called 'in the trade' the inevitability of the tradesman and his quotes, or as he likes to call it estimate. This estimate is what makes the difference between taking the job and just letting the place fall to bits. The assumption that you have no alternative is like a preemptive strike on your wallet and on your mental ability to take in the figures that have just been proposed. The estimate is, the line drawn in the sand, cross over and you're committed. The backgammon equivalent of an estimate, works in much the same way as it is an evaluation of your position, a self reconnaissance of what is your best move, before commitment. Looking at positions with regard to their chances of a winning movement is how you as a player estimate your ability to win games and matches. You estimate that the dice will allow you so much movement, maybe if you play a double it could go against you, so strategising checkers as well as dice play can bring about a reasonable estimate for success. If there's at least a quarter of a chance of winning that is; then go for it. There are some occasions when your ability to estimate isn't required when a precise move comes available, for example you have two checkers on your ace-point and the opposition two pieces on their 5 and 2 points. They double. Which leaves 19 rolls to get both pieces off out of the remaining 36, giving you a 53% chance to win, therefore you take. .Now suppose they're on the 5 and 1 points. 23 good rolls that's 64%. You still take. But just supposing they're on the 4 and 1 points. Now they have 29 good rolls or 80%, time to drop. That's where the right estimate comes into play, the better you can estimate the more chances you have to win. Of course the next time your tradesman calls it would be wise to get a second estimate, chances are your first one could be wrong.
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